The price of war – how do CEE countries manage?

The Price of War | OECD Economic Outlook June 2022

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is first and foremost a human tragedy with far too many people losing their lives and their homes. It also comes with a challenging economic impact in neighbouring CEE countries that receive large numbers of war refugees, while having to cope with an unprecedented energy and food price shock.

In a context of rising public spending on defence, support for refugees and other social spending needs, which policies will allow countries in the region to cushion the impact of high energy prices and the soaring cost of living, while ensuring macroeconomic stability and sustainability? What is the impact on wage developments and competitiveness? And how should these policies be designed to support the green transition amidst efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports from Russia quickly?

In this CEE network webinar Alvaro Pereira and Erik Frohm, OECD Economics Department, presented key findings of the OECD Economic Outlook for the CEE economics. They focused on the humanitarian impact, economic key figures such as GDP and inflation, trade, labour market developments.

Following the presentation, we discussed, among other things, scenarios for growth and inflation with Łukasz Czernicki (Polish Ministry of Finance), Daniel Dujava (Institute for Financial Policy, Bratislava), Jakub Matějů (Czech National Bank, Prague), Alexander Plekhanov (EBRD, London) and Uldis Rutkaste (Bank of Latvia, Riga). The discussion was moderated by Matthias Rumpf (ECB).


Presentation by Alvaro Pereira and Erik Frohm

Presentation by Łukasz Czernicki

Further Readings

The price of war. OECD Economic Outlook (June 2022)

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2021. European Commission (April 2022)

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessment of the Humanitarian, Economic and Financial Impact in the Short and Medium Term. wiiw Policy Notes and Reports 59 (April 2022)

EU could become independent from Russian commodities already in 2022. Report by the Polish Economic Institute (7 April 2022)

Polish embargo on hydrocarbons could cost Russia as much as over a dozen billion dollars per year. Analysis by the Polish Economic Institute (31 March 2022)

Zusammen mit Russland, das geht nicht mehr. DGAP online commentary by Dr. Claudia Major and Dr. Christian Mölling (25 March 2022)

Poland’s Refugee Crisis in Waiting. DGAP online commentary by Sławomir Sierakowski (23 March 2022)

What might help for Ukraine after the war look like? Analysis by the Polish Economic Institute (14 March 2022)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impacts on Eastern Europe. Eastern Partnership Bulletin No. 19 by CEPS (21 March 2022)

Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in UkraineOECD report (17 March 2022)

How the war in Ukraine affects tourism in Eastern Europe. Deutsche Welle article by Marco Müller (10 March 2022)

Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios. ENTSOG Union-wide SoS simulation report (November 2021)

Dossier: Russia’s war against Ukraine. Collection of recent DGAP analysis on the war in Ukraine